Fire AggroTier 1
at 貓腳印-桃園店 Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 19.2% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 16.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.6% | +13.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -4.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.4 |
| Fire Diana | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Water Arisanna | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.0% | +1.5 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blitz Mage | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crimson Tear | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Soldier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kingdom Informant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |